The Sicilian Wolf: Genetic Identity of a Recently Extinct Insular Population.

Historically, many local grey wolf (Canis lupus) populations have undergone substantial reductions in size or become extinct. Among these, the wolf population once living in Sicily, the largest island in the Mediterranean Sea, was completely eradicated by human activity in the early decades of the 20th century. To gain a better understanding of the genetic identity of the Sicilian wolf, we used techniques for the study of ancient DNA to analyze the mitochondrial (mt) variability of six specimens stored in Italian museums. We were able to amplify a diagnostic mtDNA fragment of the control region (CR) in four of the samples. Two of the samples shared the same haplotype, differing by two substitutions from the currently most diffused Italian wolf haplotype (W14) and one substitution from the only other Italian haplotype (W16). The third sample showed a previously unreported wolf-like haplotype, and the fourth a haplotype commonly found in dogs. All of the wolf haplotypes analyzed in this study belonged to the mitochondrial haplogroup that includes haplotypes detected in all the known European Pleistocene wolves and in several modern southern European populations. Unfortunately, this endemic island population, which exhibited unique mtDNA variability, was definitively lost before it was possible to understand its taxonomic uniqueness and conservational value.

Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion.

As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model. We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian.